Exploring the Epidemiological Patterns and the Dynamics of Diphtheria Outbreak in Nigeria: A Compartment Model Approach

Abstract

Diphtheria, a highly contagious and vaccine-preventable disease caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, remains a global health concern despite effective vaccines. This study modeled diphtheria transmission dynamics in Nigeria using weekly case data from December 2022 to 2024 (53 weeks). A modified Kermack-McKendrick compartmental model and spatial autocorrelation index analyzed infection patterns across states. Results showed a transmission rate of 0.3, an average latent period of 5 days, and a 10-day contagious period. Approximately 5% of infected individuals required daily hospitalization, with a natural death/removal rate of 0.01. The average reproduction rate was 1.43, meaning one case could lead to 1.43 new infections. Moran’s I revealed disease clustering, emphasizing the need for widespread vaccination, diphtheria antitoxin distribution, improved medical facilities, and regular public health campaigns for effective control.